[SMM Analysis] Artificial graphite prices slightly declined in June, and are expected to remain under pressure in July

In June, the prices of some artificial graphite anode materials showed a slight downward trend. Cost side, the price of graphitisation tolling services declined slightly, and the downward pressure on raw materials was more pronounced. Specifically, the average price of oil-based green needle coke fell by 5.7% MoM, and the price of low-sulphur petroleum coke dropped by 5.6% MoM, jointly contributing to a weakened cost support structure. Despite positive signals on the demand side, with downstream battery cell manufacturers' production increasing by 1% MoM, driving demand growth for anode materials, the supply side performed even more strongly: as coke prices fell to low levels, the profit margins of anode enterprises expanded, significantly boosting production enthusiasm. Overall, despite some recovery in demand, the industry's overcapacity situation remained unchanged, coupled with a sustained weakening of cost support, ultimately leading to a decline in anode material prices in June.

Looking ahead to July, the artificial graphite market still faces multiple variables. Cost side, structural changes are expected: the price of graphitisation tolling services for anode enterprises may maintain a fluctuating trend, while the price of raw material coke may rebound due to concentrated restocking operations by downstream enterprises. Under the combined influence of these two factors, the production cost of artificial graphite is expected to rise slightly. On the demand side, seasonal challenges will be faced, as July enters the traditional off-season for transactions, and it is difficult for end-use market demand to grow significantly. More critically, the overcapacity situation on the supply side continues. Based on comprehensive analysis, despite the slight rebound in cost support, under the increasingly severe pressure of overcapacity, it is expected that the price of artificial graphite will still face significant downward pressure in July.